Sean t rcp twitter
01 Nov 2022 23:09:39“This is really straightforward, and it's one of those things that separates serious people from unserious ones in my mind. Heck, even if the blame ultimately falls with the GOP voters, there's no justification for becoming a party to this loon potentially winning. Not that hard.”Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love …
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“In 2012 and 2016, the mantra was to treat polls as akin to God's spoken word. The polls were unusually good in 2008, and of course we had Nate Silver's breakthrough going 100 for 102 or whatever (in his defense, Silver was always forthright about poll uncertainty) 2/”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.
“@rem110892 My pt is better to learn the lesson now than later in life when the consequences really are more severe (obvs not the death penalty lol). For this, a clear statement from the league and a "two strikes and you're out for the season" rule would suffice for me, others want more.”So SC-1 is an interesting case. It's basically divvied up between Beaufort County and then three counties in the Charleston area: Charleston, Dorchester and Berkeley, with bits of other two other counties thrown in.“@mattyglesias The cynical answer is that progressivism puts them in charge. The remainder are by and large libertarians, which can be deconstructed just as easily.”“But in a wave year, these will come into varying degrees of play. So if the generic ballot starts to reach R+6 or so (which is probably about right if Biden stays in the low 40s) you're suddenly in a scenario where about 30 seats suddenly come into play. 5/”From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll. Practice here first or read more on our help page! More from @SeanTrende. Sean T at RCP ...
On the fringes, Johnson seems to have weathered the storm in WI, and is probably headed for a third term, although a systemic poll error against Rs could create a ... “This remains the key chart for how big GOP House gains will be: Biden vote share by the number of districts with that vote share. At R+3 or so nationally, the GOP starts to climb the levy that Democrats built with Biden +10 (or so) districts. 1/”Jun 5, 2021 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users …
Reader Q&A - also see RECOMMENDED ARTICLES & FAQs. “@Nate_Cohn Yeah, part of the problem is the modern right's . Possible cause: “@RadioFreeTom @ThePlumLineGS Yeah, but you final...
“Anyway, this might be a one-off thing. I hope it's a one off thing, and not another example of liberalism, having become ascendant in American politics, abandoning some of the principles that enabled it to begin its ascent out of fear that something else might replace it. 6/”“I've gotten a few questions about the "split decision" narrative, and whether it should change if Ds pull out wins in FL-Sen and AZ-Sen (good chance in both!). This gets to one of my biggest pet peeves about elections analysis and sports analysis. 1/”“Don't get me wrong, your best bet with pols is often to be cynical. But the options here seem to be some combination of Manchin is (a) sincere-ish, (b) thinks he's going to win re-election in 2024, (c) feels a duty not to represent his R+23 state as if it were Vermont.”
“Most people on this site sort into the relatively extreme positions of the two major parties: Almost no restrictions and government-funded, or made illegal. But when analyzing the impact of this opinion, just remember that most voters don't sort neatly into either camp. 2/”From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll. Practice here first or read more on our help page! More from @SeanTrende. Sean T at RCP ...
bel program bain In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users26 Ara 2020 ... I'm going to create a meme roundup that is so self-indulgent... kansas state kansas basketballnewcastle university australia Sean T at RCP on Twitter: "So my Voting & Participation class drew an Ohio map without ever turning on the political map, and came up with this. It isn't 100% … ibm maximo login “McAuliffe starting to get some more results above the line. Also, moving the threshold up to 85% reporting. City of Richmond hasn't started to come in yet, and Fairfax is still largely outstanding. This is still very interesting.” amc movie theater mattoon ilonline exercise physiology degreestacey l donovan Sean Strickland has a very straightforward opinion on his first possible title defense.. The next UFC middleweight title fight was seemingly decided at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi this past Saturday ...If you are a fan of political commentary and news analysis, tuning in to watch Sean Hannity live can be a valuable experience. When you watch Sean Hannity live, you gain access to real-time updates on breaking news stories and current event... disability visibility discussion guide “Look, it sounds like the debate is an utter disaster for him. But few will watch it, and it's a hard thing to go on the attack about without inspiring a backlash. This hurts Fetterman, but I don't think things have shifted all that dramatically.”“@shundle So if what we're seeing is more about Ds being hyperenthusiastic, rather than people changing minds, we might expect to see something like what I've sketched out.” biomaterials engineeringpolicy changes examplesosha root plant identification On April 25, 2022, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, struck a tentative deal, purchasing Twitter for $44 billion. While he isn’t the first billionaire to step into a media-adjacent space, the move leaves users and members of the general p...[Sean T at RCP, RT'ed by Nate Cohn] Reminder: don't be a crosstab truther. You're dealing with small sample sizes, sometimes subjected to multidimensional weighting. They're mostly useful for patterns that appear across multiple polls, not for disputing the topline's accuracy. twitter